Article 5 - (PTBR) Gold Eyes Records, Oil Rallies on Fed Rate and Geopolitical Risks

Key Events to Watch

• Trump’s energy sanction threats, Fed rate cut bets, and renewed Middle East tensions are driving bullish momentum in WTI, gold, silver, and possibly the U.S. dollar.
• Gold breaks the $3,500 record, reigniting bullish forecasts toward $4,000.
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday is a major focus for dollar direction and market volatility

Market Sentiment Shifts Ahead of NFP

While headlines highlight Fed rate cut risks, broader market sentiment has turned decisively risk-off. U.S. indices have pulled back, while safe havens like silver and gold have surged to new highs — with silver climbing above $40.40 and gold breaking past $3,500. This reflects a defensive market tone ahead of Friday’s NFP report.

The retreat in risk appetite is largely fueled by Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which raises the specter of renewed energy sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and inflation risks. Geopolitical anxiety is also resurfacing, particularly with mounting tension between Israel and Iranian proxies.

Global Trade Risks and Energy Sanctions

Meanwhile, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine ceasefire process continues to weigh on U.S. strategy, as sanctions on Russian oil are creating discounted supply chains benefiting major competitors like India and China. These lower costs enhance their manufacturing competitiveness, possibly allowing them to bypass U.S. tariffs and deepen alternative trade ties, adding pressure to oil prices as global trade friction intensifies.

Crude oil is currently supported by a combination of energy sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations — with price action eyeing the $70 barrier as long as it holds above $65.20.

Gold Holds Bullish Structure

Conversely, gold remains well-positioned for a breakout above $3,540. If confirmed, this could open the door to a move toward the $4,000 mark, driven by overall risk aversion and safe-haven demand.